We predicted NaMo victory in India.We predicted Trump win and even Brexit and now the French primaries.
Macron 23.7% and Le Pen 21%.
I-corp predictions come true again !
|Candidate||François Fillon||Emmanuel Macron||Benoît Hamon||Jean-Luc Melenchon|
|Ideology||Far-right||centre right||centrist||centre left||far-left|
|Party||Front National (FN)||Les Republicans||independent||Socialist||France Insoumise|
French people have fear of terrorism, so she wants to control more immigration; Popular among youth
|He is older and more experience, he is the only representative of the right side, which used to always win||Popular among youth, a new face for change his movement is called “En marche” which means “in progress” or “let’s go”||Want to cancel the “El Khomri” law which gave lots of controversies amongst French people. He is very much into ecology, wants to legalise cannabis to have control on it.||He has a strong renamed, he is popular in agriculture and ecology. He will get benefit out of the unpopularity of Benoit Hamon.|
|Election pledge||Strongly anti-European Union and promises a referendum on France’s EU membership; reducing immigration, reinstituting border controls and ditching the Euro for a national currency.||Liberalising the French economy and reducing the number of civil servants; ban the hire of relatives as parliamentary assistants.||liberalisation of the French job market and reforming the education system||Taxing robots and creating a basic universal income.||withdrawing France from Nato and European treaties, increasing the minimum wage and setting the age of retirement at 60|
|Controversies/weaknesses||Beinginto “fake” jobs at the European Parliament. She is still very much attached to the ideologies of her father, anti-Semitic, homophobic even if she pretends not to be.||Investigation in||
lack of experience” and for not publishing a programme until a few weeks ago
people says in statement that they are not sure to vote for him, his program is half left /half right/ he never gives clear answer to a question and stays to general. He wants change but he comes from bank industries
|He seems to start already as a loser, he is not very popular amongst French citizen, he has less founding than others. Hollande gave a bad image of the left side behind him. He doesn’t convince electorate about foreign policy and internal security.||He is not clear about his views on Europe, but he apparently want to go out of EU. He wants to raise taxes.|
|Current poll rating||2nd with 22.3 % votes||3rd with 19.3 % votes||1st with 23.3% votes||5th with 7.9 %votes||4th with 19.1 %votes|
|Our estimate||Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will be elected for the second round.|
The French election altogether will have a different kind of twist in it. Currently as the poll shows Emmanuel Macron is running ahead of all, while Marine Le Pen remaining immediately behind is trying to keep the pace followed by Francois Fillon. Mr Fillon had a good start in the beginning, but has seen his popularity wane after allegations of misuse of public funds. The possibilities of being France’s first woman President and its first far-right leader since Second World War, strengthen Marine Le Pen’s candidacy. On the other hand launching new party with centrist ideology and his popularity among youth makes Emmanuel Macron most liked candidate for the Presidency. Considering these factors, polls as well as their agendas most likely Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will advance to the second round. There is minimal probability that either of them will get an outright majority of votes during the first stage.
The remaining eight candidates in the race will sooner or later come to the aid of either of these two aids. Now who might benefit whom the most? Factors such as, economic growth, Brexit, immigration and unemployment will lead to an unorthodox twist. And that obviously will follow another very basic instinct of the French people.
For the second round of election, it won’t be too surprising to see the gap between Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron getting bridged and later with the aid of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is currently on number four in the race, even if Macron is ahead of all. The timing will be the twist, and also there will be Benoit Hamon, changing side at the last moment. Moreover floating voters will be another deciding factor and surely will change equations.
Today’s proposition suggests that Macron is set to win the first round.
As per latest polls available in public domain.